Ten years from now, Bitcoin is more likely to be $100 than $100,000, Harvard economist says
Harvard University professor and economist Kenneth Rogoff said Tuesday that the chance of bitcoin prices falling to $100 is greater than that of the digital currency trading at $100,000 a decade from now.
“I think Bitcoin is going to be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we get out ten years from now… I see $100 as much more likely than $100,000 ten years from now,” Rogoff told CNBC. Squawk Box”.
“If the opportunity for money laundering and tax evasion is removed, its actual uses as a transaction vehicle are minimal,” said the former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist.
Many illicit transactions have been associated with Bitcoin, estimates of which vary in proportion to the use of the digital currency used in illegal activities. According to Shone Anstey, co-founder and president of the Blockchain Intelligence Group, he calculated that the level of illegal transactions had dropped to 20 percent in 2016 and was “significantly less than that” in 2017.
Regulations introduced by the government will cause bitcoin prices to fall, Rogoff said, though he stressed that it would take time to develop a global regulatory framework.
“It has to be a global regulation. Even if the United States cracks down and China cracks down but Japan doesn’t, people will still be able to launder money through Japan,” she said.
According to industry site CoinDesk, Bitcoin traded around $11,242.61 during Tuesday morning trading in Asia. The price of the digital currency has fallen this year from a record high of over $19,000 in December of last year.
Authorities have been passive about regulating bitcoin in anticipation of the technology behind the digital currency, according to Rogoff.
“They want to see the progress of technology,” Rogoff said, adding that the private sector has historically “designed everything” in currency history, from standardized minting to paper money.
Bitcoin is a major area of growth as an application of blockchain technology that allows transactions to be held and recorded.
However, in the past there have also been claims of falling bitcoin prices. Before Bitcoin sold off in December of last year, Rogoff said last October that estimates of the digital currency would “collapse” amid attempts by governments to regulate the space.